http://www.cnn.com/…

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee quit the presidential race after it became clear that McCain would win the Republican nomination, after winning Tuesday’s GOP primaries.

“It’s now important that we turn our attention not to what could have been or what we wanted to have been, but now what must be — and that is a united party,” Huckabee told supporters in Dallas, Texas, after losing Tuesday’s primary in Texas and three other states.

Huckabee, a former Baptist pastor, thanked volunteers for “keeping the faith” and told them, “I’d rather lose an election than lose the principles that got me into politics in the first place.”

Well it’s unfortunate that McCain has more or less gotten the necessary delegates to win the nomination but now it’s down to McCain and Paul and there is always a chance McCain will choke on a carrot.

http://www.cnn.com/…

Ralph Nader is entering the presidential race as an independent, he announced Sunday, saying it is time for a “Jeffersonian revolution.” “In the last few years, big money and the closing down of Washington against citizen groups prevent us from trying to improve our country. And I want everybody to have the right and opportunity to improve their country,” he told reporters after an appearance announcing his candidacy on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

Asked why he should be president, the longtime consumer advocate said, “Because I got things done.” He cited a 40-year record, which he said includes saving “millions of lives,” bringing about stricter protection for food and water and fighting corporate control over Washington.

This marks his fourth straight White House bid — fifth if his 1992 write-in campaign is included.

Nader said Thomas Jefferson believed that “when you lose your government, you’ve got to go into the electoral arena.”

“A Jeffersonian revolution is needed in this country,” he said.

Nader told NBC that great changes in U.S. history have come “through little parties that never won any national election.”

Long-shot GOP contender Mike Huckabee said Nader’s entry would probably help his party.

“I think it always would probably pull votes away from the Democrats and not the Republicans, so naturally, Republicans would welcome his entry into the race,” Huckabee said Sunday on CNN.

But Nader — citing the Republican Party’s economic policies, the Iraq war, and other issues — told NBC, “If the Democrats can’t landslide the Republicans this year, they ought to just wrap up, close down, emerge in a different form.”

Nader’s entry into the race did not come as a surprise to political watchers.

On Sunday, Sen. Barack Obama criticized him. “My sense is that Mr. Nader is somebody who, if you don’t listen and adopt all of his policies, thinks you’re not substantive,” Obama told reporters when asked about Nader’s possible candidacy.

I’ve told people at work that the D’s should be able to “landslide the R’s this year” but I don’t underestimate the D’s ability to lose. Seems Nader is in agreement and Obama and the D’s are too. They don’t like Nader just as the R’s don’t like Paul. Now that Paul has effectively ruled out a 3rd party run and with Nader running… the R’s must be happy as a pig in shit. What the D’s need to do is make sure that Obama is the nominee because Nader’s anti-war position vs a Hillary ticket could do the most damage to the Democratic party I think.

There is a part of me that would love to see a Hillary (D), McCain (R), Paul (L), Nader (G) showdown but I don’t see Paul considering a LP ticket run unless he looses his seat in congress and at this point it looks like Obama will get the Democrat ticket. How if only Nader would be given a spot in debates and understand he should be fighting the Leviathan and not the people.

• 2,380 total delegates
• 1,191 votes needed to win nomination
• less than that results in a brokered convention
• According to CNN.com:
  • John McCain : 663 pledged, 17 unpledged
  • Mitt Romney : 261 pledged, 9 unpledged
  • Mike Huckabee : 173 pledged, 3 unpledged
  • Ron Paul : 16 pledged, 0 unpledged
• As noted on the CNN site says: “Unpledged delegates in the Republican Party do not have to indicate a candidate preference, but a majority are elected just like pledged delegates. Of the 463 unpledged delegates, 123 are RNC members who become delegates automatically.”
• These numbers are estimates. No one knows for sure who all the delegates belong. Some states have yet to finalize them.
• The Paul campaign has announced that in fact they have an estimated 42 delegates.
• There are 2,380 - 1,142 = 1,238 delegates left to get.
• With 680 total delegates McCain needs 1,191 - 680 = 511 more to lock in a win. 551/1,238 = 44.5% of those available.
• The Wikipedia article on the Republican presidential primaries does a wonderful job sorting out when and how delegates are picked.
• Kansas has 36: Paul is the number 1 fundraiser, Rudy 2nd, McCain 3rd. I suspect McCain will do well but with no poll data it’s hard to tell. This poll which matches candidates shows McCain doing the best against Clinton so my guess is he wins. It’s not a winner take all however. If we follow Montana which Paul also was number 1 fundraiser… it went to Romney who raised 2nd most.
• Washington has 40: Paul is doing well there. 2nd in fundraising to Mitt. Hopefully those two pick up most of the delegates.
• Virginia is winner takes all. Looks like McCain will take their 63.
• Maryland looks like Rudy and Romney country. Assuming they move from Rudy to McCain he may pickup a majority of their 37.
• DC looks like a McCain win with 16.
• Louisiana is a cluster fuck. Paul may have gotten 2nd to the Pro-Life slate though McCain may have. Either way it’s split and counted in the 42 the Paul campaign is claiming. There are more (24+) to be selected however.
• Wisconsin should go well for Paul and be fairly split. They have 37 to give.
• Based on $$ raised Romney should pick up a majority of Ohio but Rudy + McCain could take a large chunk of the 85 they have.
• Texas’ 137 appear to be very split. If the Rudy supporters go to McCain he will get many of the delegates.
• I’m counting about 330 for McCain from these states. At that rate it seems likely he will get his 511 but it may be fairly close. I’ve heard rumors that some of his delegates aren’t really his. I doubt it’s all that many but it could be enough to force a brokered convention. Even though I don’t expect Paul to get the nomination the opportunity to address the entire Republican establishment and pitch his platform would be priceless. The whole Republican world would hopefully be watching.

http://caucusresults.sos.state.mn.us/…

	Hillary Clinton	0	0.00%
	Jerome Corsi	1	1.22%
	John Edwards	0	0.00%
	Rudy Giuliani	0	0.00%
	Mike Huckabee	3	3.66%
	Alan Keyes	3	3.66%
	John McCain	0	0.00%
	Roy Moore	0	0.00%
	Barack Obama	0	0.00%
	Ron Paul	65	79.27%
	Mitt Romney	2	2.44%
	Undecided	7	8.54%
	Other	1	1.22%

My idea of the Libertarian, Constitution, Independent and perhaps Reform and Green all nominating Paul perhaps isn’t too far fetched.

• The Democrat race is still in the air a bit. While Clinton is ahead by nearly 100 delegates there is still many states left and a long time till their convention.
• McCain did well as expected. I think primarily because of the number of winner take all states. Had the delegates been split up it would probably would have been much closer.
• McCain won 9 states. Huckabee 5. Romney 7. Paul 0.
• Accounting for things like what occurred in West Virginia the number of delegates dedicated to each candidate is not quite accurate.
• The available numbers also don’t account for any internal events which may be occurring in the states. I’m not familiar with the workings of all the different states but some use this primary or caucus to vote for state delegates which will at a later time pick national delegates. In those cases the MSM reports the national delegates as if they were already selected. If someone was to drop before the nationals are selected than they could vote differently.
• In several states Giuliani actually got votes. He even beat Paul 5% to 4% in California with 90% reporting. Assuming much of those votes would have gone to McCain it doesn’t look like they would have changed the results in any of the states. Again given the differing systems it’s hard to say for sure. Thompson even got 3% in Tennessee. In that race it could have changed the outcome. Huckabee got 34% and McCain got 32%. I suspect it would have helped Huckabee more than McCain however. I’d like to know if these were protest votes or people who didn’t realize their candidate of choice had dropped. I hope it’s the former.
• There has been several accounts of voting issues with Paul supporters. Three from people I know. Steve Miller in Brooklyn saw issues with voting machines not working and those running the poll said that only 2 Republicans where running and Jim Lesczynski and his wife had changed their party affiliation months ago yet the voting place had them as their old party. Here in NJ they had my girlfriend and I marked as unaffiliated and we had to choose which party to vote for on the spot. No harm but sad that I had changed to R months ago and received confirmation saying as much.
• Paul did well in states he was expected to do well in but not as well as some thought. 3rd in Alaska is disappointing given the level of support that was expected. He was the number 1 fundraiser there. In Montana Paul was again the number 1 fundraiser with more than twice what Romney in second raised. Yet Romney won 38% of the state delegates vs Paul’s 25%. Unfortunately Montana is a winner takes all state and the delegates are apparently required to vote for that individual. It’s even more interesting in North Dakota where Paul again was the largest fundraiser with Romney raising the least yet Romney won the majority with Paul a close 3rd with 21% to McCain’s 23%. Both get the same number of delegates as does Huckabee with his 4th place 20%.
• He also did worse in some states where he was polling last but with higher percentages than he actually received.

Paul generally got spanked but that was expected. The race is still not over and even with McCain in the lead he’s only 60% the way to the nomination. Obviously money does not mean votes. As a movement we need to better target the public. I truly believe the MSM did us great harm in this race and we need to figure out a way to deal with that in the future. The counties around the several states where Paul won or did well should be analyzed and replicated. I don’t believe there was anything particularly special about those voters it was how we advertised and presented our candidate to them. We need to convince people not only of his platform but his electability. As much as we hate that that is a major component to the average voters decision it’s reality and we need to counteract the MSM putdowns and writeoffs. Spend less money on blimps and more on newspaper, radio and TV ads. More articles to the editor which aren’t defensive and complaining about being left out but offensive and comparative and explains why our policies are right and better for the average voter. While we may lose this battle the fact we are able to get such high numbers in some areas of the nation should give us encouragement. In local and national elections were we are targeting much smaller audiences we have a better shot at getting freedom fighters in office. Murray Sabrin’s campaign for Senate has been able to get more money than they where asking for from 47 states. That kind of support will hopefully help get those people elected. Also as a libertarian candidate we’ve gotten a low of 3% and high of 25%. This is just unheard of in the Libertarian Party generally. Nationally Paul is pushing 7%-9% from what I’ve seen. That’s really huge. We do have an audience we just need to approach them. We probably have a larger audience we just need to get by the MSM’s attacks and blackout. On a local level that’s much easier.

It’s going to be interesting to see what happens when and if Huckabee or even Romney drop out. It seems to me that those supporting them would be hard pressed to support “liberal” John McCain. If Paul does not drop and seeks the Libertarian ticket he could possibly pick up quite a few delegates. I understand that is a fairly unlikely situation but I’d love to see it just to gage what and why people choose a candidate.

To leave on a more optimistic note, A Scorecard You Won’t Find on Fox News:

Supporter Loren C. sends in this excellent summary of what Ron Paul has achieved so far.

A friend of mine asked me tonight, “Should Ron Paul just quit? I never hear of him on the news so he can’t be doing very well today (Super Tuesday).” Here is my reply to him:

I don’t care what the liberal media is saying, he has,

2nd place in Nevada

2nd place in Louisiana (possibly first once they get it sorted out)

2nd place in Montana

2nd place in Maine

3rd place in Utah

3rd place in North Dakota

There is about 21 more states left to vote,

He has plenty of money,

No one has even close to enough delegates to take the nomination,

He has the only true Republican stance on the issues,

He is the only candidate who believes our government should follow ALL of the Constitution,

Quit?

Not even close. Keep fighting, Ron Paul is!

Well said. And while the momentum John McCain has been gaining lately may appear daunting, Ron Paul supporters are the ones who should be least intimidated by it, because as the other, fraudulent alternatives to John McCain fail one by one — Mitt Romney is certainly on the ropes after tonight, especially if, as appears to be the case, he loses California to McCain — the real alternative to McCain-ism, Ron Paul, will only become more attractive to conservative Republican voters.

Indeed, it’s interesting to note that so many of the states McCain won tonight were blue states which any Republican (except the antiwar Dr. Paul) will have a hard, if not impossible, time winning in November. And despite his wins tonight, McCain does not have a majority of Republican National Delegates, so the fight for the nomination is still very much on.