Inflation on demand: FED to flood world with dollars
Posted on November 24th, 2008 at 10:41am by bile Tags: Ben Bernanke, central bank, Federal Reserve System, food, Glenn Jacobs, Hank Paulson, hyperinflation, inflation, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Michael Feroli, New York, U.S. government, United States, USD 2 Comments »The world needs more dollars. The United States is preparing to provide them.
In an all-out assault on capitalism’s worst crisis since the Great Depression, the U.S. is taking on the role of both lender and borrower of last resort for the global economy.
The Federal Reserve, which has already pumped out hundreds of billions of dollars, might formally adopt a policy of flooding the world financial system with even more money. The Treasury, on course to borrow some $1.5 trillion this fiscal year, may tap global capital markets for even more to finance a fiscal stimulus package of as much as $700 billion and provide additional bailout money for banks.
“You want to do everything you can when you’re facing the threat of a deflationary breakdown of the economy,” says Michael Feroli, a former Fed official who is now an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. He sees the central bank cutting the overnight lending rate to zero in January and holding it there throughout the year.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson are being forced to pull out the stops because the extraordinary actions they’ve taken so far have failed to gain much traction. Credit markets are collapsing, stock prices are plunging and the world economy is sinking into a recession.
As the economy deteriorates, deflation — a sustained decline in wages and prices — is emerging as a new threat. U.S. government figures last week showed that consumer prices excluding food and fuel costs fell in October for the first time since 1982.
1. Deflation is not “a sustained decline in wages and prices” but a decrease in the supply of money and credit. 2. Deflation is not a bad thing. It’s part of the correction. The fractional reserve system responds in this way naturally. While it may harm current debtors it helps soon to be ones. It also helps everyone better afford goods and services as prices fall. It’s in no way a cut and dry scenario.
As Glenn Jacobs over at Adventures of Citizen X explains the possible outcome of the FEDs actions are far worse then what we are currently enduring:
Much of the current strength of the dollar can be attributed to psychology—folks are scared and are running to perceived security. The demand for dollars is high which is keeping the velocity of money low. Since more dollars are being held, there are less dollars competing for products. Hence, the price of products is staying low. However, as more and more dollars enter the system, there will be less incentive to hold them in savings. An increase in the number of dollars will result in a bidding up of prices as more dollars compete for the same amount of products.
We are in the first stage of a possible hyper inflationary environment. The inflation is entering the system, but because of the high demand for dollars, people don’t realize it because prices have not started to rise yet. In stage two, as more dollars compete for products, prices begin to gradually rise. However, people still try to hold their dollars thinking that the price rise is temporary and that they will soon drop. In stage three—the actual hyperinflation—prices are rising so quickly that people spend money as soon as they receive it, causing a negative feedback loop that results in a fiat currency dropping to its intrinsic value, zero.
Let’s hope they aren’t that stupid.





