Pimco’s Paul McCulley Wants Japan To Go “All In”

Posted on January 11th, 2010 at 8:06am by bile
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http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

“Japan’s problem is deflation, not inflation as far as an eye can see,” wrote Paul McCulley, a member of the investment committee, and Tomoya Masanao, the head of portfolio management for Japan, in a report on the Web site of Newport Beach, California-based Pimco. “An ‘all-in’ reflationary policy is what is needed.”

The BOJ may also consider promising to refrain from raising interest rates until inflation becomes “meaningfully positive,” McCulley and Masanao said.

this is just craziness as mish points out.

Japan has the highest debt-to-GDP level of any industrialized country to the tune of 227% of GDP. It has built bridges to nowhere, held interest rates at .1% for a decade, tried massive amounts of quantitative easing, Keynesian stimulus, and even at times sold Yen to buy dollars.

The result is two decades of total failure. Japan’s recession is 19 years running. The Nikkei hit 38,900 in 1990 and sits at 10,800 today, down 72% two decades later.

Japan has already gone “all in”. It has tried everything under the sun for two decades including Keynesianism, Monetarism, and selling its own currency to sink it. All it has to show for its efforts is a massive pile of debt equaling 227% of GDP.

how does one look back on the past 20ish years in japan and claim they haven’t inflated enough?

Definitions of Insanity

  • In One Sentence: Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and over and expecting different results each time.
  • In Two Words: Paul McCulley
  • In One Word: Keynesianism
  • In Another Word: Monetarism

Bernanke named TIME’s person of the year

Posted on December 16th, 2009 at 9:31am by bile
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http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1946375_1947251,00.html

A bald man with a gray beard and tired eyes is sitting in his oversize Washington office, talking about the economy. He doesn’t have a commanding presence. He isn’t a mesmerizing speaker. He has none of the look-at-me swagger or listen-to-me charisma so common among men with oversize Washington offices. His arguments aren’t partisan or ideological; they’re methodical, grounded in data and the latest academic literature. When he doesn’t know something, he doesn’t bluster or bluff. He’s professorial, which makes sense, because he spent most of his career as a professor.

so Keynesianism isn’t an ideology?

even though this isn’t his only ‘person of the year’ award it makes me no less sick to my stomach.

Timothy Geithner gets laughed at, unfortunately not off the stage

Posted on June 2nd, 2009 at 10:40am by bile
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http://www.reuters.com/…

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Monday reassured the Chinese government that its huge holdings of dollar assets are safe and reaffirmed his faith in a strong U.S. currency.

A major goal of Geithner’s maiden visit to China as Treasury chief is to allay concerns that Washington’s bulging budget deficit and ultra-loose monetary policy will fan inflation, undermining both the dollar and U.S. bonds.

China is the biggest foreign owner of U.S. Treasury bonds. U.S. data shows that it held $768 billion in Treasuries as of March, but some analysts believe China’s total U.S. dollar-denominated investments could be twice as high.

“Chinese assets are very safe,” Geithner said in response to a question after a speech at Peking University, where he studied Chinese as a student in the 1980s.

His answer drew loud laughter from his student audience, reflecting scepticism in China about the wisdom of a developing country accumulating a vast stockpile of foreign reserves instead of spending the money to raise living standards at home.

Next time may I recommend a rotten tomato or two? Just for theatrics. Don’t hit the man. He’s sad enough.

Ron Paul getting some of the attention and credit he deserves

Posted on May 15th, 2009 at 9:33am by bile
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The attacks on HR1207 are starting

Posted on May 13th, 2009 at 2:06pm by bile
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http://www.forbes.com/

Extraordinary times require extraordinary actions. Nowhere is that more apparent than in the bold policy moves undertaken by the Federal Reserve over the past two years. The financial crisis forced the Fed to be aggressive and creative in its attempts to provide liquidity to credit markets that had frozen up. These were necessary steps, and mostly applauded.

But the very boldness of its actions has put the independence of the Fed at risk. Congress is now clamoring to audit the Fed, and some of the policy proposals currently under discussion at the Federal Reserve will only increase the threat to its independence.

Without independence, the political cycle would subject the central bank to political pressures that, in turn, would impart an inflationary bias to monetary policy.

On this view, politicians in a democratic society are short-sighted because they are driven by the need to win their next election. This is borne out by empirical evidence. A politically insulated central bank is more likely to be concerned with long-run objectives.A variant of the argument for central bank independence is that control of monetary policy is far too important to put in the hands of politicians. As a group, they have repeatedly demonstrated the lack of political will power to make difficult economic decisions. But now they want to assert control over the Fed. The bill, HR 1207, introduced by Sen. Bernie Sanders (who brought you the “Employ Americans First Act”) and Rep. Ron Paul, would assert greater control over the Fed. As Ron Paul writes on his Web site: “Auditing the Fed is only the first step towards exposing this antiquated insider-run creature to the powerful forces of free-market competition. Once there are viable alternatives to the monopolistic fiat dollar, the Federal Reserve will have to become honest and transparent if it wants to remain in business.”

Great! Obviously, monetary policy is so falling-off-a-log simple that your elected representatives can insert themselves via the demand for transparency into decisions of true complexity and subtlety. Why am I not feeling reassured?

I believe cy_cy says it all:

Quoth Cooley- “Without independence, the political cycle would subject the central bank to political pressures that, in turn, would impart an inflationary bias to monetary policy.”

Is this sentence for real? Perhaps you could summon a grad student to investigate the “inflationary bias” pre-Fed and post-Fed. (I realize you’re too busy.)

Since the Fed’s inception, the dollar has lost over 98% of its value. Before the Fed, the dollar would actually GAIN value as time passed (thanks to productivity gains.) Are you implying that the so-called “independent fed” should be patting itself on the back for (so far) preventing hyper inflation?

You clearly imply that Ron Paul wishes to bring transparency to monetary policy so that he himself can make macro monetary calls (manipulating interest rates, reserve rates, etc.) You imply that he is not qualified to be making these decisions. I am sure he would agree: his entire point is that no individual or small group can centrally determine interest rates.

The fact that you would so horribly misstate Paul’s monetary thesis suggests you either have not bothered to research his thesis (yet have the audacity to write an article about it anyway), or you do know what he is trying to say, but you grossly misconstrued his message so that you could shout it down. Either option is an overwhelming suggestion of both intellectual bankruptcy and, in light of your career choices as a writer and an educator, severe moral bankruptcy as well.

Tags: The Fed, HR 1207, Intellectual Cowardice

Government lala land

Posted on May 12th, 2009 at 6:39am by bile
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Just now Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius was on CNN talking about the Obama administrations healthcare proposals. The host asks if all these programs Obama is promoting are sustainable or even appropriate given the 1.5 trillion dollar deficit the federal government is running this year and is planned to continue doing in the next few. “Isn’t that partly how we got into the current crisis? Couldn’t this continued behavior lead the country to bankruptcy?”

Her reply:

“No, I think it’s just the opposite.” … and then goes on to describe that prices in healthcare are too much and everyone knows it and the government needs to step in and help out.

Deficits will do the opposite of leading them toward bankruptcy? So spending money we don’t have makes us wealthy?! Federal government spending money is magicly not from taxes you’ve already paid or will pay or your children will pay some day or will pay through inflation?



Free State Project 4

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